A few weeks before the 2022 midterm elections, President Biden promised that, if the Democrats maintained and expanded their majorities in both houses of Congress, he would push for legislation to enshrine the right to abortion in law.

In a speech to the Democratic National Committee on October 18, Biden stated his belief that “the [Supreme] Court got Roe right 50 years ago, and I believe that Congress should codify Roe [as law] once and for all.” The president also promised to veto any legislation that would restrict abortion rights in the event of a Republican midterm elections victory and Republican majorities in Congress.

Biden was referring to the Supreme Court’s decision this year in the case of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, in which, by a 5–4 majority, it overturned the Court’s previous 1973 decision in the case of Roe v. Wade, which found a “constitutional” right to abortion. The Court’s decision in Dobbs eliminated the only federal legal protection of the right to abortion. As a result, several Republican Party-controlled state governments have passed legislation banning and criminalizing abortion at the state level. Most of these states have also made it a crime to travel to an adjacent state for the purpose of seeking an abortion.

In the same speech, Biden claimed, “Right now, we’re short a handful of votes” to pass legislation protecting abortion rights.

So, the president went on, “If you care about the right to choose, then you gotta vote. That’s why, in these midterm elections, it’s so critical to elect more [Democrats] to the U.S. Senate and more Democrats to keep control of the House of Representatives. And, folks, if we do that, here’s the promise I make to you and the American people: The first bill that I will send to the Congress will be to codify Roe v. Wade.”

President Biden made the extraordinary claim that, even with majorities in both houses of Congress, and the presidency — in other words, full control of the federal government — the Democrats were incapable of passing a law to protect the right to abortion and other reproductive rights.

In fact, the president’s claim was an outright lie!

The Democrats have held their current majorities in Congress and the presidency for two years; thus, the Democrats have had two years to pass legislation protecting the right to abortion and other reproductive rights. The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision was handed down on June 24 of this year; thus, the Democrats have had almost five months to pass legislation protecting the civil rights that the Court eliminated. Even with the midterms behind us, the Democrats still have the power to pass any legislation whatsoever — right now. In fact, the new members of Congress will not be sworn in until January 2023, which means that the Democrats will remain in full control of the federal government for nearly two months.

When the Democrats throw their hands up and say, as Biden said, that they’re “short on votes,” the truth is that they are shamelessly lying to you. The truth is not that they can’t, but that they won’t.

But, why? The Democrats claim to be the party of reproductive rights, and the party of progressive civil rights in general. That’s how they’ve distinguished themselves from the GOP. If they can protect reproductive rights — if they can do so right now — then why won’t they?

It all comes down to the Democratic Party’s classic, tried-and-true electoral strategy: “carrot and stick.”

In the run-up to every election cycle, the Democrats dangle a “carrot” in front of certain sections of the U.S. electorate — in front of women, in front of LGBT people, in front of Black and other racially oppressed people, in front of disabled people, in front of migrants, in front of the working classes and the poor, and so on. The Democrats promise, “If you vote for us, we’ll protect your civil, political, and basic human rights. But you have to vote,” they insist, turning and pointing at the “stick” we know as the GOP, “or else your rights will be taken away.”

This election cycle was no different. For the Democrats, centering abortion rights in the midterm elections was a tactical move.

With the U.S. economy hurtling into another crisis and recession, and with inflation skyrocketing, many political commentators predicted that the GOP would sweep the midterm elections. But it seems that mainstream opinion underestimated the significance of reproductive rights and other civil rights, such as marriage equality, that are now threatened by an increasingly extreme-right GOP and a right-fascist Supreme Court. The consensus among mainstream political analysts is now that the issue of abortion rights played a singularly important role in the midterm elections, and that this single issue decided, in favor of the Democrats, many of this election cycle’s most hotly contested races.

Aside from the elections, ballot measures in several states concerned abortion. In every case, pro-choice proposals triumphed and anti-choice proposals were defeated.

Ballot measures enshrining the “right to reproductive freedom” in state constitutions were passed by majorities of voters in California (by 67%), Michigan (by 57%), and Vermont (by 77%). Conversely, a ballot measure in Kentucky, regarded as a thoroughly “red” state, would have amended that state’s constitution to stipulate that there is no right to an abortion. This backwards proposal was rejected by 52% of voters in Kentucky. A similar, but more convoluted, measure in Montana, which would have criminalized a wide range of abortion-inducing medical procedures, was rejected by 53% of voters in that state.

Clearly, the majority of U.S. citizens, even in many “red” states, support, in general, the right to abortion.

The Democrats understood this, and so, in standard Democrat fashion, they made the right to abortion the cornerstone of their midterm elections campaigns, with a few exceptions, across the country. In their messaging, the Democrats resorted to their tried-and-true “carrot and stick” strategy — making empty promises to pass legislation after the midterm elections, if the results were favorable, yet refusing to take action now, while they actually can. 

Now the 2022 midterm elections are mostly over, and the results, although incomplete, are clear: The Democrats no longer control Congress. The Republicans won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, while the Democrats maintained a similarly narrow majority in the Senate.

What does this mean for Biden’s earlier promise to “codify Roe” in law?

At the president’s press conference on Monday, November 14, a reporter asked Biden, “What should Americans expect from Congress as it relates to abortion rights,” given the results of the midterm elections.

Biden replied, “I don’t think they can expect much of anything, other than we’re going to maintain our positions.” When further pressed, he added, “I don’t think there’s enough votes [in Congress] to codify [Roe], unless something happens unusual in the House [of Representatives]. I think we’re going to get very close in the House, but I don’t — I think it’s going to be very close, but I don’t think we’re going to make it.”

For two years (correctly speaking, for several decades) the Democrats have held hostage the right to abortion. This week, Biden made clear that his party won’t be giving up that valuable bargaining chip anytime soon — at the very least, not until the conclusion of the next election cycle, two years from now.

As we’ve said, the Democrats still have the power to pass legislation right now. In fact, the Democrats are currently in the process of passing legislation protecting the right to gay marriage in law. But they won’t do the same for reproductive rights.

Evidently, Biden’s plan is to keep the “carrot and stick” of reproductive rights available for use in 2024, when he’ll most likely face Donald Trump in another presidential election. We can be sure that the Democrats will yet again present themselves as the “party of women’s rights” in 2024. Until then, millions of women and transgender people will continue to needlessly suffer under a regime that cruelly denies us basic rights to essential, life-saving healthcare, and criminalizes us for seeking it.